June 30, 2006


IGC raises world 2006/07 wheat, corn ending stocks



The International Grains Council (IGC) raised its 2006/07 world ending stocks estimates for both wheat and corn Thursday (Jun 29).





The world wheat carryout forecast was raised by 3.0 million tonnes from last month's estimate to 121 million tonnes, which is still down 9.0 million from 2005/06.


The increase stemmed from a projected jump in world production of 4.1 million tonnes to 604.6 million tonnes.


IGC made some of the largest upward revisions in wheat output in China, Russia, Ukraine, Canada and Pakistan. The largest decline was posted in US production.


World wheat consumption only saw major changes on the month and stands at 613 million tonnes, down 11 million tonnes from 2005/06.


The 2006/07 world wheat trade estimate was lowered by 1.0 million tonnes to 111 million tonnes.


The agency said projected 2006/07 imports by China and Iran would be lower.


And there were "minor reductions in the expected exports of Argentina and the European Union and a larger drop in US shipments due to its tight supplies," said the IGC.


"Canada and Pakistan may expand their sales," the IGC said on the 2006/07 balance sheets.





Total world corn ending stocks in 2006/07 were forecast at 101 million tonnes, which is up 3.0 million tonnes on the month, but still 27 million tonnes below 2005/06.


The upward revision was due to a 4.5-million-tonne increase in the 2006/07 world corn production estimate, due to a revision in China's figures.


World 2006/07 corn consumption was expected to increase by 4.0 million tonnes from last month to 720 million tonnes, which is up 24 million tonnes from 2005/06.


"Estimates of use in China have increased in parallel with the revised production figures, but the forecasts for other countries, including the US, are little changed from May," the IGC said.


Global corn trade in 2006/07 was forecast to reach a three-year high of 79 million tonnes, which is up 1.0 million tonnes from last month's IGC report.


Canada's imports were raised due to rising feed demand and cancellation of duties on purchases from the US. IGC also said South Korea's "growing feed industry may use less wheat".


The US is still figured to export 55 million tonnes of corn in 2006/07 (September-August), which is an 11-year high, the IGC said.


However, exports by Argentina and China in will be lower on the year, according to the report.