June 29, 2026
 

IGC lifts 2026/27 world corn forecast to 1.31 billion tonnes on Argentina and India upgrades

Global output would still fall 29 million tonnes short of the prior season's record, and El Niño conditions now underway add uncertainty to southern hemisphere harvests later in the year.

The International Grains Council (IGC) has raised its 2026/27 global corn production forecast by 10 million tonnes to 1.310 billion tonnes, driven primarily by improved crop prospects in Argentina and India, though the revised figure remains well below the 1.339 billion tonnes harvested in 2025/26.

Argentina's 2026/27 corn crop estimate was lifted to 63 million tonnes from a previous projection of 59 million, though this still falls significantly short of the 70 million tonnes recorded in the prior season. India's forecast was revised up more sharply, to 52 million tonnes from 46.8 million a month earlier, though output is still expected to come in below the 2025/26 harvest of 55.1 million tonnes.

The IGC also raised its 2026/27 global wheat production forecast by 1 million tonnes to 821 million tonnes, with Russia's crop outlook increased to 89 million tonnes from a prior estimate of 87.9 million. Global rice production for 2026/27 was held unchanged at 545 million tonnes, marginally below the prior season's record of 546 million tonnes.

The IGC flagged El Niño conditions now underway as a source of downside risk for subsequent forecasts. "An El Niño event is now underway and predicted to strengthen through the second half of the year. While there is an increased chance of yield variability, especially for the next southern hemisphere harvests, the impact remains uncertain at this stage," the council said. A strong El Niño could adversely affect rice yields in key Asian producing countries, the IGC added.

- Reuters