June 29, 2023

Ukraine's wheat harvest could surpass projections

Traders and analysts have revealed that Ukraine's wheat harvest in 2023 may significantly exceed official projections of 17 million metric tonnes, potentially reaching a minimum of 24 million metric tonnes, Nasdaq reported.

These estimates are based on a survey conducted among farmers. Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry's said that the harvest may decline due to the Russian invasion and occupation of parts of the country.

In 2022, Ukraine recorded a wheat harvest of approximately 20 million metric tonnes. However, both the Grain Traders Union (UGA) and analysts suggest that this year's wheat yield could be considerably high.

A report from UGA and UkrAgroConsult said the expected yields are quite high, ranging from 3 to 8 metric tonnes per hectare, with an average yield projected at 5.46 metric tonnes per hectare. The report also highlights that a majority of farms (64%) anticipate yields surpassing 5 metric tonnes.

The survey, conducted in the second half of June, involved the participation of 186 farms and agricultural companies across Ukraine.

Based on the data provided by Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry regarding winter and spring sowing, UGA estimates that this year's gross harvest could total 24.4 million metric tonnes in bunker weight, or 23.5 to 24 million metric tonnes in clean weight.

These figures significantly surpass current market expectations, which stand between 15.6 and 18 million metric tonnes, according to UGA and analysts.

-      Nasdaq