June 29, 2021

FAO: 2021's global coarse grains production to increase 2.5%



At a record 1,516 million tonnes, world coarse grains production in 2021 is forecast to increase by 36 million tonnes (2.5%) from 2020, almost exclusively due to higher maize production, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).


A large expansion in maize production in the United States accounts for the bulk of the expected global increase, in addition to greater outputs anticipated in China, the European Union and Ukraine. World production of sorghum is also foreseen to rise in 2021/22, while barley production is set to decline, largely on expected reduced output in Australia.


World utilisation of coarse grains is forecast to increase in 2021/22 by 1.4%, reaching an all-time high of 1,526 million tonnes. The main driver of this growth is a rise in industrial use, stemming from expected greater utilisation of maize for the production of ethanol. Increased feed use of both maize and sorghum, especially in China, is also seen lifting coarse grains utilisation in 2021/22.


With the 2021/22 utilisation forecast exceeding the global production forecast, coarse grains stocks are expected to contract by the close of seasons in 2022, falling by 1.7% below their opening levels. This decline is largely attributed to a likely further drawdown of maize inventories in China. In combination with the forecast rise in utilisation, the expected fall in global coarse grain inventories would lower the world stocks-to-use ratio to its lowest level since 2012/13.


Larger shipments of maize and sorghum are seen balancing an expected reduction in barley trade, keeping global trade in coarse grains in 2021/22 near the 2020/21 record level.


Continued strong import demand from China is anticipated to remain an important driver of the expected growth in trade for maize and sorghum, in addition to expectations of increased maize purchases by the EU, Mexico and Turkey. On the export side, larger shipments of maize are forecast for Argentina and Ukraine and increased sorghum exports are expected from the United States.


In 2020/21, global oilcrop production is expected to recover from the previous season's reduced level, with an area-driven rebound in soybean and rapeseed production more than offsetting a weather-induced contraction in world sunflower seed output.


While global supplies of meals/cakes are set to recover, global consumption is forecast to continue expanding, led by increasing consumption in China. With global meal uptake expected to surpass world supplies, global carry-out stocks of meals/cakes are anticipated to contract for a second consecutive season, possibly dropping to a seven-year low and entailing a further decline in stocks-to-use ratios.