June 29, 2012

 

US corn crops continue to decline on dry weather

 

 

The University of Illinois crop sciences professor Emerson Nafziger said that with less than 40% now rated as good to excellent on June 24, the Illinois corn crop condition continues to deteriorate.

 

On the positive side, the current corn crop has good colour, is mostly disease-free, and has uniform stands with few drowned-out areas. These factors will contribute to increasing kernel set in fields pollinating now, at least where there is enough soil water. Cooler weather this past week has prolonged the period of adequate water, and cooler nights reduce respiration, thus helping the sugar supply.

 

On the negative side is the lack of rainfall, with deficits for May and June ranging from one to six inches in different parts of Illinois. On June 26 the US Drought Monitor showed the entire state as dry, with most of the state in moderate to severe drought and the southern counties in "extreme drought."

 

As the crop enters the critical yield-producing stage, many are wondering about the effects the lack of soil water has had, and will have, over the next weeks.

 

"The 2012 corn crop is well-rooted, healthy, and tough, but it's unrealistic to expect it to continue to thrive as the soil water supply continues to decline in dry areas," Nafziger said. Plants that are unable to take up enough water to keep leaves from rolling in the afternoon are not fully productive, and this takes a toll on the crop.

 

"As of June 24, 17% of the state's corn crop was pollinating, the highest percentage for this date on record," he continued. "This week we would expect most of the crop that was planted by mid-April in central and southern Illinois to begin to pollinate, bringing the number by July 1 to perhaps 40%."

 

In Indiana, drought conditions could hit farmers in the pocketbook in more ways than one, Purdue Extension agricultural economist Chris Hurt says. Not only could water-starved corn and soy crops produce smaller yields and cut into farmers' revenues, but they also could force some growers who signed future delivery contracts with grain buyers to buy back some bushels they are unable to supply, Hurt said.

 

"We've been hearing of producers calling their grain managers and talking with them about the possibilities of dealing with these yield reductions," Hurt said. "Right now it's hard to say what will happen, because nobody knows where grain prices are going to go."

 

With some parts of Indiana now nearing a month without significant rainfall and the critical pollination phase of corn either already started or about to begin, large crop losses appear likely for some farmers. Those losses would be especially painful for farmers who sold a large percentage of their anticipated corn crop this spring in forward cash contracts.

 

In forward contracts, producers promise to deliver a specified amount of grain to buyers well before their crops are harvested. In turn, farmers are guaranteed a set price for their grain, even if grain prices fall below that set price before their deliveries are made. Farmers face a double whammy if the drought persists, Hurt said. On one hand, they could fail to produce enough crops to meet their contractual obligations. On the other, they could lose additional revenue if prices rise above their locked-in rate.

 

Most of western Kentucky is in a severe drought status and that severity is likely to spread to central Kentucky in the next report. Most of the corn is going through tassel and pollination, which is well ahead of the five-year average and the worst possible time to experience temperatures in the high 90s F (35 C or more). The high temperatures and low humidity dry out pollen and silks faster, both of which need moisture for successful fertilisation of the ovules.

 

In addition to the need for moisture for pollination, the corn plant simply needs more water. Corn around tasseling and silking demands about 0.3 inches (7.7 mm) per day. Most of our fields were at a water deficit prior to tasseling and the water deficit is increasing. The lack of water could lead to the abortion of kernels.