June 27, 2005
ASA: May's soybean crush larger than expected; slow growth of Asian rust
May's soybean crush larger than expected
The monthly Census Crush Report showed soybeans crushed in May stood at 3.89 million tonnes, slightly higher than trade expectations and compared with 3.20 million tonnes in May last year.
The previous week, the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported May crush at 3.72 million tonnes. Oil stocks were pegged at 850,000 tonnes. The larger-than-expected crush appears to be driven by robust soybean meal exports.
Analysts expect soymeal domestic use, which is estimated at 5.3 percent above the five-year average from October through April, to be up 5.6 percent for the 2004-05 marketing year as a whole.
The bigger soybean crush further undermines soyoil fundamentals, due to larger soyoil supplies that are projected to result in 2004-05 soyoil ending stocks of 771,000 tonnes.
Reasons behind Asian rust's slow growth
Asian soybean rust cases have been isolated in Florida and Georgia thus far this year, surprising many experts.
In an interview with Dow Jones Newswire, Ohio State University plant pathologist Anne Dorrance deduced the reasons could be that many inoculum rust spores did not survive the winter, and that the Florida environment had not been favourable for rust development.
Other reasons could be that the weather currents had not allowed for spore movement, while drought in the central corn belt might also be hindering the spread of soybean rust, as well as the development of soybeans themselves.
Experts point out that the same conditions that are most conducive to high soybean yields, such as plentiful moisture and warm temperatures, are the same environment needed to promote the rapid spread of Asian soybean rust.
Manitoba to import more US soybeans
The lower than expected soybean harvest in Manitoba has led to increased imports of US soybeans into the province.
Martin Harder, operator of the Jordan Mills soybean processor in Manitoba said that currently, 75 percent of the soybeans being crushed at the facility were imported from US.
Oilseed-based bio-fuels increasingly accepted
The surging world price of crude oil is making bio-fuels increasingly competitive, International Energy Agency (IEA) said in the week of Jun 20.
Soaring oil prices have encouraged major consumers worldwide to sharply increase their use of ¡®green' bio-fuels made from agricultural products such as oilseeds. But in most parts of the world, without hefty tax rebates from governments, the additional costs for producing bio-fuels would make the fuel uncompetitive.
It is estimated that bio-fuels need to be priced between US$60 and US$100 a barrel to be competitive without subsidies, IEA said.
GM foods on markets safe, WHO said
GMO currently on the market does not appear to pose any health threat to humans or to the environment, a WHO report said.
However, the report also points out that this does not mean that all GMO is automatically safe for consumption. As a matter of fact, those currently on the market had to go through rigorous safety and risk assessments before being offered for sale.
Brazil's farming expansion to slow
Expansion in Brazil's farm sector is expected to slow in 2005-06, as weaker commodity prices and high production costs take a toll on farmers' financial returns, USDA reports.
Brazil's 2005-06 total grain, oilseed and cotton area is expected to reach 44.7 million hectares, up only 2 percent from last year's record level. Of this total, about 23 million hectares will be planted with soybeans, a figure that remains almost unchanged from last year. The changes reflect the contrasting fortunes of different crops in 2004-05, when many soybean producers made losses, while profit margins for corn were positive.
USDA warns that producers may face another year of negative returns as a result of weak commodity prices, rising production costs and a strengthening domestic currency.
It is uncertain whether sufficient production financing form either public or private sector sources will be made available to sustain the current record area of grains, oilseeds and cotton, or support its continued growth from current levels, the report revealed.
Meanwhile, Brazilian farmers are in default on up to one-third of their debts with the government. High fertilizer and herbicide prices mean that producers will have to cut spending on crops next year, Dow Jones Newswires reported.
The worst drought in 50 years in southern Brazil from October 2004 through March this year has also left many producers in a precarious financial situation. As a result, any drought next summer could have a much greater effect on the soybean crop than in previous years.
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | |||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2002/03 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 |
2003/04 |
2004/05 |
2005/06 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
5,663 |
4,853 |
3,059 |
896 |
1,630 |
2,820 |
681 |
3,129 |
4,186 |
|
Production |
75,010 |
66,778 |
85,484 |
35,500 |
33,000 |
39,000 |
52,000 |
52,600 |
53,000 |
|
Imports |
127 |
151 |
136 |
400 |
540 |
350 |
1,124 |
350 |
213 |
|
Crush |
43,966 |
41,631 |
44,906 |
24,723 |
24,298 |
26,842 |
27,796 |
29,172 |
30,215 |
|
Exports |
28,441 |
23,946 |
29,937 |
8,910 |
6,500 |
8,700 |
19,987 |
19,571 |
20,888 |
|
Other |
3,540 |
3,146 |
4,171 |
1,533 |
1,552 |
1,652 |
2,893 |
3,150 |
3,200 |
|
Usage |
75,947 |
68,723 |
79,014 |
35,166 |
32,350 |
37,194 |
50,676 |
51,893 |
54,303 |
|
Carryout |
4,853 |
3,059 |
9,665 |
1,630 |
2,820 |
4,976 |
3,129 |
4,186 |
3,096 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
218 |
200 |
191 |
330 |
347 |
250 |
490 |
763 |
469 |
|
Production |
34,666 |
32,953 |
35,674 |
19,486 |
19,050 |
21,253 |
21,950 |
22,920 |
23,730 |
|
Domestic use |
29,380 |
29,257 |
30,345 |
250 |
260 |
270 |
8,750 |
8,784 |
9,400 |
|
Net Exports |
5,304 |
3,705 |
5,293 |
19,219 |
18,887 |
20,583 |
12,927 |
14,430 |
14,374 |
|
Usage |
34,684 |
32,962 |
35,638 |
19,469 |
19,147 |
20,853 |
21,677 |
23,214 |
23,774 |
|
Carryout |
200 |
191 |
227 |
347 |
250 |
650 |
763 |
469 |
425 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
1,070 |
676 |
488 |
105 |
99 |
74 |
150 |
150 |
93 |
|
Production |
8,363 |
7,748 |
8,509 |
4,554 |
4,435 |
4,947 |
5,031 |
5,258 |
5,448 |
|
Domestic use |
7,752 |
7,651 |
7,847 |
130 |
130 |
145 |
2,668 |
2,710 |
2,785 |
|
Net exports |
1,005 |
285 |
587 |
4,430 |
4,330 |
4,676 |
2,363 |
2,605 |
2,666 |
|
Usage |
8,757 |
7,936 |
8,434 |
4,560 |
4,460 |
4,821 |
5,031 |
5,315 |
5,451 |
|
Carryout |
676 |
488 |
563 |
99 |
74 |
200 |
150 |
93 |
90 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 16 Jun 2005 | ||||||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Belgium |
Soybeans |
1.5 |
326.9 |
|
Hong Kong |
Soymeal |
0.3 |
7.7 |
|
Canada |
Soybeans |
0.9 |
340.5 |
|
Japan |
Soymeal |
29.5 |
244 |
|
China |
Soybeans |
24.7 |
11791.6 |
|
Mexico |
Soymeal |
47.4 |
752.7 |
|
Colombia |
Soybeans |
0.8 |
118.7 |
|
Panama |
Soymeal |
0.8 |
84.7 |
|
Cuba |
Soybeans |
0.1 |
77.9 |
|
Salvador |
Soymeal |
0.8 |
75.0 |
|
Denmark |
Soybeans |
18.7 |
858.8 |
|
Vietnam |
Soymeal |
0.5 |
3.7 |
|
Japan |
Soybeans |
28.2 |
2431.2 |
|
Canada |
Soyoil |
0.5 |
22 |
|
Mexico |
Soybeans |
93.6 |
2610.7 |
|
Mexico |
Soyoil |
5.5 |
136.6 |
|
Philippines |
Soybeans |
23.5 |
153.3 |
|
Oman |
Soyoil |
0.1 |
0.2 |
|
Syria |
Soybeans |
14.2 |
75.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Taiwan |
Soybeans |
0.8 |
1445.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Turkey |
Soybeans |
8.0 |
713.3 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
Canada |
Soymeal |
9.6 |
661.4 |
|
Commodity |
Outstanding Sales |
Accum. Exports |
New Sales |
|
Colombia |
Soymeal |
4.5 |
164.8 |
|
Soybeans |
1,344.4 |
28,309.9 |
148.6 |
|
Ecuador |
Soymeal |
5.1 |
29.4 |
|
Soymeal |
732.7 |
4,534.6 |
109.6 |
|
Guatemala |
Soymeal |
15.1 |
188.3 |
|
Soyoil |
35.8 |
362.3 |
6.1 |
