June 25, 2007

 

Australia's beef exports to fall in 2007/08
 

 

The volume of beef exports from Australia will fall 9.1 percent to 890,000 boneless tonnes next fiscal year from 979,000 tonnes this fiscal year ending Jun 30, a bigger downturn than expected in March reflecting expected lower production, according to an official forecast issued Monday (Jun 25).

 

Assuming a return to normal seasonal conditions next fiscal year after drought, producers will retain greater numbers of cattle to rebuild herds, resulting in lower cattle slaughter, beef production and exports, the government's Australian Bureau of Agricultural & Resource Economics, or Abare, forecast in its latest Australian Commodities quarterly publication.

 

About 90 percent of Australian beef exports goes to three major markets - Japan, the US and South Korea - making Australia the biggest exporter by value in the world and the second biggest by volume after Brazil.

 

Abare expects exports to Japan in the next fiscal year to fall 6.4 percent to 380,000 tonnes from an estimated 406,000 tonnes this fiscal year. Despite the fall in export volume, demand will remain strong with competition from the US, a major competitor, constrained by Japan's strict import protocol.

 

Beef exports to the US next fiscal year will tumble 10 percent to 275,000 tonnes from 306,000 tonnes this fiscal year.

 

Australian beef exports to South Korea are forecast to slump 29 percent next fiscal year to 110,000 tonnes from an estimated 155,000 tonnes this fiscal year, reflecting increased competition from the US and higher Australian saleyard prices for cattle, Abare said.

 

Australian beef production next fiscal year will fall to 2.06 million tonnes carcass weight from 2.23 million tonnes this fiscal year, it said.

 

Slaughterings are seen to drop to 8.30 million beasts next fiscal year from an estimated 9.01 million this fiscal year.

 

As for exports of live cattle, Abare forecasts shipments will rise 8.1 percent next fiscal year to 640,000 beasts from 592,000 beasts this fiscal year, driven largely by an expansion in the supply of cattle suitable for live export, following several years of above average seasonal conditions in northern Australia.

 

Demand is expected to increase in Indonesia, Australia's largest export market, Abare said.