June 23, 2008

 

The USDA increased its US exports estimate by 544,000 tonnes and reduced the old-crop carryout to 3.4 million tonnes, tightening the US 2007-08 balance sheet.

 

The only change in the new-crop balance sheet was a 272,000 tonne reduction in 2008-09 crushes.

 

In its first world forecasts for 2008-09, USDA pegged next year's Brazil soy crop at 64 million tonnes and Argentina's crop at 48 million tonnes.

 

Both figures, which reflected a 5.6-percent increase in Brazil's area and a 1.8-percent increase in Argentina's area, were in line with both countries' estimates.

 

China's soy imports were forecast at 35.5 million tonnes for 2008-09, up 1.5 million tonnes from 2007-08.

 

Furthermore, the USDA boosted both old- and new-crop soymeal exports and reduced domestic usage.

 

The agency reduced soy oil use in biodiesel production for both 2007-08 and 2008-09 and hiked 2007-08 soy oil exports to 1.41 million tonnes.

 

USDA to survey farmers in Midwest to gauge flood damage

 

The USDA said on June 19 that it would contact farmers in six Midwest states to gauge how heavy rains and spring floods will affect the soy, corn and sorghum harvests.

 

The agency will release its annual acreage report on June 30.

 

The report will list crop plantings by state. The figures are based on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of June.

 

USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) said that it gathered most of the data before the worst of the flooding occurred.

 

In an effort to accurately determine how much of the planted area will be harvested for grain, NASS will re-interview producers during the week of June 23 in affected areas such as Illinois, Indiana and Iowa.

 

US soy complex lower as midwestern weather turns drier

 

The US soy complex closed mostly lower on June 19 as new-crop soy futures are coming under pressure from drier weather in the Midwest.

 

While the market may have overreacted to the flooding concerns, now that the weather pattern has turned favourable, it will not take much of supply shortfall to require the rationing of protein meals and feed grains in 2008-09.

 

July soy futures closed down US$3.86, finishing at US$567.87; August lost US$4.78, closing at US$568.79; and September was down US$6.43, ending at US$561.44.

 

July soymeal increased US$2.65 closing at US$462.41; August was US$1.43 higher, finishing at US$459.00; and September soymeal closed down US$0.33, ending at US$451.94.