June 22, 2009

Australia is expected to harvest 34.8 million tonnes of winter grain in 2009-10, according to the latest Australian Crop Report by the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE).

The anticipated five-percent improvement on the 2008-09 harvest is largely due to a more favourable start to the season across southern Australia, while conditions in northern regions remain positive.

Rainfall across Western Australia, the country's largest grain producing state, has been patchy so far, resulting in variable planting conditions with a number of areas still waiting on season breaking rainfall. Total area sown for 2009-10 is projected to be relatively steady at 7.3 million hectares, but lower yields are expected to decrease production by 16 percent on-year to 11.4 million tonnes.

ABARE forecast little change in the area sown to winter crops across South Australia with four million hectares, and Victoria at 3.1 million hectares for the coming season. But improved seasonal conditions during late autumn and early June in the states are expected to raise yields higher than 2008-08's drought-affected harvest.

Winter crop production in South Australia is expected to improve 34 percent on-year to 6.2 million tonnes, while Victorian production is projected to surge 68 percent to 5.2 million tonnes.

For New South Wales, sowing conditions varied significantly from north to south. Northern producers benefited from above average falls, while southern farmers welcomed recent widespread rain following a dry spell. While further rainfalls across the south of the state will be needed throughout winter to boost the prospects for a good harvest, a three-percent lift in total plantings had increased total production for 2009-10 by two percent to 9.8 million tonnes.

Most of Queensland's winter crop regions recorded above-average rainfall during May and early June, enabling growers to capitalise on improved conditions and increase plantings by 10 percent to 1.3 million hectares. But while yields are forecast to be above-average, they are unlikely to match 2008-09's bumper harvest, with production seen to drop four percent to 2.1 million tonnes.