June 20, 2023

 

Australian cattle herd set to grow, leading to increased supply in 2023 and beyond

 

Data from Meat & Livestock Australia (MLA) showed that the country's national cattle herd is projected to continue its growth throughout 2023, resulting in a significant supply of both young cattle and finished weight animals in the market well into 2024, Mirage News reported.

 

The MLA's Cattle Industry Projections update said that the national cattle herd is expected to reach its highest level since 2014, at 28.7 million head.

 

The growth of the national cattle herd has led to stocking rates in southern Australia, particularly in New South Wales, being well above long-term averages. Northern Australia is also experiencing a herd rebuild, supported by a strong wet season. Female retention in northern Australia will contribute to the ongoing rebuild in that region, while the breeding herd in southern Australia is projected to surpass long-term averages in 2023.

 

Ripley Atkinson, senior market information analyst at MLA, said that the long-term outlook indicates a higher supply of cattle in the country, with above-average marking rates expected to continue despite a forecast of average or below-average seasonal conditions.

 

Atkinson also said that the genetic investment made by producers in building a productive and fertile breeding herd over the past three years will play a significant role in ensuring continued high supplies of young cattle into 2024.

 

The increase in beef production is expected to be strong this year, driven by improvements in processing capacity, higher slaughter volumes, and historically elevated carcass weights. Slaughter for 2023 is forecasted to reach 6.95 million head, which is a 5% revision upwards compared to MLA's January figures.

 

Factors driving the higher volume include strong numbers of grass-fed steer turn-off from key production regions in Queensland and significantly higher numbers of cast-for-age cows as a result of the increased number of breeding females on-farm.

 

Producers and processors are managing the higher supplies of slaughter weight stock, and this trend is expected to continue throughout the year.

 

While the first six months of 2023 have seen the cattle market operate as usual, with higher turn-off leading into winter placing downward pressure on prices, it's important to consider the unique circumstances of the past three years, including the drought and the impacts of COVID-19, which have influenced trends in cattle prices.

 

The price forecast information collected from industry analysts indicates a stabilisation in prices relative to the volatile market of 2022. But the forecasted levels for the Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) and Feeder steer are expected to be below long-term averages.

 

-      Mirage News