June 20, 2022

European Commission's grain forecast cut by over two million tonnes

The European Union's agricultural sector continues to be under considerable strain due to the increase in the cost of energy and other inputs, the European Commission said.

However, recent data figures confirm that EU food supplies are not at risk.

According to data by the European Commission, the EU market situation for grains was positive until recent times. Prices were very high for farmers and harvest prospects were quite positive. Prolonged dryness in certain regions combined with heat waves in May gave rise to some concerns.

The latest commission grain forecast has been reduced by over two million tonnes (from 295.8 million tonnes to 293.1million tonnes). This reduction mainly concerns barley and maize (maize was so far forecast at record production levels) and does not affect soft wheat.

The prospects for EU exports continue to be very positive.

EU soft wheat exports in the next season are forecast to reach 38 million tonnes, the highest level ever. This confirms the possibility for the CAP to contribute to world food security.

Total grain exports (wheat, barley and maize) could reach about 54 million tonnes (slightly below the 2019/20 record of 55 million tonnes).

EU oilseed production is now expected to expand significantly due to an increased area (+6%), with production forecast to expand by the same percentage. This positive development will permit the EU market to cope with lower oilseed availability from Ukraine.

- European Commission