June 20, 2012

Russian grain yield may lose 7.2 million tonnes

This year, drought will cut the grain output of Russia by around 7.2 million tonnes in three key growing regions, according to forecasts from regional governments and a producer.

Wheat for December delivery rose 3.2% to US$6.7225 a bushel in the CBOT by 9:01 p.m. Moscow time.

Krasnodar, Russia's biggest grower which harvested 11.4 million tonnes of grains last year, may have four million tonnes less wheat and may see its barley crop fall by 500,000 tonnes this year, the region's governor Alexander Tkachev said, according to a statement on his administration's website today. The wheat yield is expected to fall to four tonnes a hectare (2.47 acres) from 5.5 tonnes a hectare, he said.

"There is a forecast saying we can lose up to a quarter of the harvest," Tkachev said. Krasnodar's final grain crop may fall three million tonnes to eight million tonnes to 8.5 million tonnes in 2012, he said.

Valery Zerenkov, governor of the Stavropol region, Russia's second biggest grower, declared a state of emergency in half of the territory today because of drought, according to an order published on the region's agriculture ministry website. The grain harvest is expected to be 2.5 million to three million tonnes smaller than last year's 8.2 million tonnes, the government said last week.

In Rostov, the country's third biggest grower, where three of the region's 43 districts are in drought, rainfall on the weekend wasn't enough to save heat-damaged grains, said Andrey Kruglikov, director of the agricultural division of OAO Rusgrain Holding, a Russian grain and poultry producer.

Recent rains may have helped ear maturation on the grain plantings that survived the drought and spring crops including corn, sunflowers and sugar-beets that are still growing, he said by phone from company's fields.

Rostov may have lost up to 15% of its crop, Kruglikov said. Last year, the area harvested 7.7 million tonnes of grains, according to the state statistics data. That means the region's harvest may fall by as much as 1.2 million tonnes, according to Rusgrain.

Heavy rain, hail and storms are forecast in Rostov and Krasnodar regions for today, the Federal Hydrometeorological Center said, without giving a forecast for Stavropol.

The US is seen as the top wheat exporter, followed by Australia in 2011-12, according to the USDA.