June 19, 2024

 

What frozen salmon otherwise say about China's salmon imports in 2023 and beyond

 

China's total salmon imports in 2023 reached 92,920 tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 46.3% and exceeding 2019's historic high of 89,184 tonnes.

 

Chilled salmon imports soared from 49,018 tonnes in 2022 to 80,126 tonnes in 2023, an increase of 63.5%, breaking through the 80,000-tonnes mark for the first time in history and surpassing the historical record of 74,242 tonnes in 2019.

 

Although the amount of salmon imported into China last year hit a new high with a 63.5% increase, this is mainly due to the surge in chilled salmon imports. As for frozen salmon imports, there was a year-on-year decrease of 11.7% to 12,794 tonnes, a far cry from 2014's historical import record of 17,500 tonnes.

 

 

Imports from Chile command 99.3% of the Chinese frozen salmon market.

 

It should be noted that China's frozen salmon imports have been on a rollercoaster ride over the past few years. In 2021, imports fell sharply due to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2022, import volumes rebounded to a record high after the country lifted stringent lockdown measures while soaring prices of chilled salmon drove the sales of frozen salmon.

 

Last year, however, frozen salmon imports tumbled as demand waned.

 

The latest data from China Customs showed that in January and February 2024, China imported 15,237 tonnes of chilled salmon and 1,987 tonnes of frozen salmon, both higher than in the same period in 2023. However, the sharp rebound in frozen salmon imports, which occurred in 2022, is unlikely to be seen this year. Growth is projected to be modest judging from China's bleak economic outlook and the growing prudence of Chinese consumers.

 

Furthermore, China's chilled salmon imports will face further hindrances if the prices of salmon continue to rise.

 

Frozen salmon is mainly targeted at home consumption, especially the prepared food segment. However, in recent years, the Chilean Salmon Association has not been actively promoting the consumption of frozen salmon in the Chinese market, hence resulting in the relatively slow growth of the frozen salmon market.

 

It is projected that China's imported salmon market will remain at around 100,000 tonnes in the next few years with a slight annual growth (at best) and chilled salmon taking up 85% of the market share.

 

- David Lin, eFeedLink