June 16, 2026

USDA raises 2026 forecast for this year's US red meat, poultry production

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) has increased its 2026 red meat and poultry production forecast for the United States to 109 billion pounds, with anticipated gains in broiler production expected to offset lower red meat output.

According to the June World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report released last week, pork production has been raised slightly to 27.955 billion pounds, based on reduced slaughter for the second quarter being outweighed by heavier dressed weights.

For 2027, total red meat and poultry production is also projected to reach 109 billion pounds. With slightly heavier dressed weights anticipated, pork production has been raised to 28.290 billion pounds. The USDA's Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, scheduled for release on June 25, is expected to offer more insights into producer farrowing intentions for the second half of 2026. This data will also help establish clearer expectations for hog supply and pork production conditions during the first half of 2027.

The average barrow and gilt price has been reduced to US$66.63 per hundredweight, US$1.75 less than last month. The WASDE is projecting the average barrow and gilt price to be US$65/cwt in 2027, down $2 from May’s estimate.

2026 pork exports are now expected to reach 7.252 billion pounds based on strong shipments to key markets reported in recent trade data but are unchanged for 2027, at 7.330 billion pounds.

- National Hog Farmer