June 16, 2008

CWB forecasts record world wheat production in 2008

World wheat production is expected to rebound to record high levels during 2008 in view of improved weather conditions in some major wheat-producing regions of the globe, according to projections made by the Canadian Wheat Board on Thursday (June 12, 2008).

Using USDA forecasts, Gordon Finlay, weather and crop surveillance analyst with the CWB, estimated world wheat production at 663 million tonnes.

In the US, wheat production is forecast to climb to 66.2 million tonnes, a 10-million-tonne increase from the output in 2007-08. For soft red winter wheat, wet conditions in the eastern corn belt could damage the quality of the crop. For the hard red winter wheat crop, above-average yields and lower-than-normal protein levels are anticipated.

As far as spring wheat and durum are concerned, poor subsoil moisture conditions in the western Dakotas are threatening potential yield levels, as is the case in Canada, Finlay said.

In North Africa, above-normal temperatures and low precipitation levels during the growing season have hurt durum prospects.

In the Middle East, crops have been placed under extreme stress as a result of dry, hot weather from January through June, and production levels from countries in that regions should be significantly reduced, he said.

Production prospects in the countries of the Black Sea region are very good due to generally favorable weather conditions. Output is expected to rise by more than 11 million tonnes from 2007-08 levels, Finlay said.

Farmers in eastern Australia are still planting their winter wheat crop, because dry soils have delayed the onset of seeding. Recent rainfall in parts of the eastern grain belt of Australia has been welcome.

Despite the strong jump in world wheat production, global prices for wheat are expected to remain at strong levels given demand from increasing consumption and the record-low stocks due to problems in the key producing nations in the previous year, according to Bruce Burnett, director of weather and market analysis for the CWB.