June 16, 2008

 

Demand for soy continues to rise in the global market based on March to May 2008 data.

 

However, China accounted for all of the increase versus a year ago.

 

Demand from the EU remained unchanged while demand from the rest of the world slightly fell for the second consecutive quarter.

 

Soy exports from Brazil in the period were up an impressive 1.7 million tonnes from the previous year with US shipments up roughly 900,000 tonnes and Argentina's exports up just 100,000 tonnes.

 

Soymeal exports from Brazil were up less than 100,000 tonnes from the previous year with US shipments up nearly 200,000 tonnes,

 

India's exports were up by 600,000 tonnes while Argentina's exports were down nearly 1 million tonnes due to strikes.

 

Lower Argentine soymeal exports were nearly offset by larger exports from the US, Brazil and India to satisfy world soymeal import demand.

 

The growth in China's soy import demand mostly was supplied by ample new-crop Brazilian supplies and, to a lesser extent, by rapidly depleting old-crop US soy supplies.

 

Looking forward to 2008-09, the growth in China's soy import demand is expected to slow because of a rebound in its soy production.

 

World soymeal import demand is expected to be slightly lower in 2008-09 due to a rebound in EU grain production that will allow EU protein meal consumption to retreat.

 

US Census revises soy oil stocks history; use in biodiesel slips in April

 

The Census Bureau last week released the 2007 annual summary for its fats and oils report.

 

Notedly, the bureau did an upward revision in soy oil stocks by 68,000 to 90,700 tonnes for each month of the year.

 

The average increase was near 81,600 tonnes, which is in line with the revision in March soy oil stocks that was made in the last Census crush report.

 

The bureau did not revise its monthly soy oil stocks estimates prior to 2007 in the fats and oils annual summary.

 

Soy oil usage for biodiesel was seen to fall by 29,500 tonnes, which was offset partially by an increase of 10,900 tonnes in January usage.

 

USDA implements provisions from new farm bill

 

USDA announced Thursday (June 12, 2008) its marketing assistance loan and loan deficiency payment (LDP) provisions in line with the new farm bill.

 

USDA set county loan rates for 2008 corn, soy and wheat among others.

 

National-average loan rates for 2008 crops were: wheat at US$2.75/bushel, corn and sorghum at US$1.95/bushel and soy at US$5.00/bushel.

 

US soy complex higher on Midwest rains, still lagging Argentine export

 

The US soy complex closed up on June 12 reflecting excessive moisture in the Midwest and the continued disruption of the movement of Argentine soy.

 

July soy futures closed up US$7.35, finishing at US$564.56; August gained US$6.89, closing at US$565.11; and September was up US$3.67, ending at US$559.78.

 

July soymeal increased US$4.08 closing at US$443.35; August was US$3.64 higher, finishing at US$442.79; and September meal closed up US$3.20, ending at $437.50.