June 11, 2004



Projected US Soybean Production At Record Levels


U.S. oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected at 90.2 million tons, unchanged from last month.  Soybean production is projected at a record 2,965 million bushels, or 80.7 million tons.  A projected increase in 2003/04 soybean ending stocks for South America is expected to provide increased export competition for U.S. soybeans and soybean meal in 2004/05.  As a result, 2004/05 U.S. soybean exports are reduced 15 million bushels to 1,065 million bushels.  Soybean crush is also reduced based on lower soybean meal export prospects.  U.S. soybean ending stocks are projected at 220 million bushels, up 30 million bushels from last month.


The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2004/05 is projected at $5.70 to $6.70 per bushel, down 15 cents on both ends of the range.  Soybean meal prices are projected at $185 to $215 per short ton, down $10 on both ends of the range.  Soybean oil prices are projected at 24.5 to 28.5 cents per pound, down slightly from last month.


Global oilseed production for 2004/05 is projected at a record 378.3 million tons, up 42.6 million tons (13 percent) from 2003/04.  Foreign oilseed production is projected at 288.1 million tons, up 28 million tons from 2003/04.  Global soybean production is projected to increase 35.8 million tons to a record 225 million tons as yields in both the United States and South America recover from relatively low levels in 2003/04.  Improved yields and prospective increases in harvested area, especially in Brazil, will push South American soybean production to a record 113 million tons, accounting for just over half of 2004/05 global production. 


The Brazilian soybean crop is projected at a record 66 million tons, up 25 percent from the drought-reduced 2003/04 crop.  Global production of high-oil-content seed is up only slightly as increased rapeseed production is mostly offset by reduced sunflowerseed production.  Rapeseed production is projected higher for China, the EU, and Canada, but lower for India.  Sunflowerseed production is lower for Ukraine and Russia as producers reduce plantings from 2003/04.  Sunflowerseed area was unusually high in 2003/04 as producers replanted wheat area lost to winterkill.


Global protein meal consumption is projected to increase 6 percent in 2004/05, led by gains for both soybean and cottonseed meal.  Protein meal consumption in China is projected to increase 8 percent, with soybean meal projected to rise 6 percent.  Global vegetable oil consumption is projected to increase 4 percent for 2004/05, also led by relatively strong gains for China.  Despite a 6-percent gain in oilseed crush, 2004/05 global oilseed stocks are projected to rise 37 percent to a record 50.8 million tons.


Changes for 2003/04 include reduced soybean production and trade.  Brazil soybean production is reduced 0.9 million tons to 52.6 million tons.  Forecast soybean imports for China are reduced 1.25 million tons to 19 million tons as strong soybean prices reduce crush.