June 11, 2004

Record 2004/05 Soybean Crop Expected In China

China's 2004/05 soybean production is estimated at a record 17.5 million tons, up 1.5 million or 9 percent from last year and up 1.0 million from the previous record set in 2002/03.

Soybean area is estimated at a record 9.8 million hectares, up 500,000 or 5 percent from a year ago. The estimated yield of 1.79 tons per hectare is above the 5-year average and close to the long-term trend. According to a planting survey by the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA), farmers planned to increase soybean acreage by more than 13 percent this year in response to continuing strong demand from crushers and higher relative profits compared to corn. About 45 percent of China's soybean crop is produced in the northeastern part of the country.

Spring weather has been favorable for the early development of soybeans in Heilongjiang, which alone produces about one-third of China's total output. However, unfavorably warm and dry conditions have developed over most of Jilin and Liaoning provinces, which may cause poor emergence in the drought-affected areas. On the North China Plain (30 percent of total production), planting conditions were generally favorable. Rainfall and temperatures have been close to normal and spring-sown soybeans should be developing well.

Source:   FAS/World Ag Production