June 9, 2020
Canadian veterinarian doubts China will end swine fever problem by 2021
China could see the end of its African swine fever woes by next year, according to Chinese hog industry officials, but a Canada-based veterinarian questions the optimism.
Dr. Egan Brockhoff, a leading authority on ASF who serves as veterinary counsellor with the Canadian Pork Council, said "there's no question that African swine fever continues to circulate in China and southeast Asia."
"It's hard to know the full extent of the virus circulation. But speaking with my colleagues (in China), they tell me the virus is still circulating. Herds are still being affected," he added.
The flow of information in China was also curtailed by lockdowns in the country due to the COVID-19 pandemic. This makes understanding China's ASF situation more accurately even harder.
Nevertheless, Dr. Brockhoff saw a silver lining for the beleaguered Chinese swine sector as it moves towards bigger, modern hog farms.
"You're seeing larger farms, or farms with more robust biosecurity, having more success," said Dr. Brockhoff.
One sign of China's success in containing ASF and rebuild swineherds comes from observing imports. "They (Chinese buyers) have been on the market on the global level for the last couple of years. That doesn't seem to be slowing down at all," Dr. Brockhoff said. "That's encouraging on one side. That sets the global demand, and helps set a solid price for the foundation. If you can get pork to market, there's a good price there for you."
However, efforts to get the Chinese swine industry back on track are complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic that "has interrupted the entire network of moving and selling pigs," Dr. Brockhoff said.
"It's not an insignificant challenge for them to deal with that. It is really hard to estimate what is happening with mortality."
Chinese slaughter plants also could not "find enough pork to keep processing," Dr. Brockhoff claimed, noting the issue has been a persisting problem.
Meanwhile, New Hope Group, a major Chinese pig producer, said it will sell eight million hogs this year - more than double 2019's total - and its production will rise to 15 million next year and 25 million pigs in 2022.
- Alberta Farmer Express
