June 9, 2008
ASA weekly: US soy bounces back on wet weather in Midwest
The US soy complex closed up on June 5 reflecting wet Midwest weather, the ongoing farmer strike in Argentine and a drop in the US dollar.
Soy oil was the stronger product on June 5 due to a rally in crude, yet the product share remains sharply lower as the soy market has been stronger than the petroleum market.
The recent wet weather threatens to delay soy planting beyond crop insurance planting deadlines from June 10 to June 20.
The 2007-08 balance sheet looks to be very tight unless USDA's next stocks report reveals an even larger understatement of last year's crop.
Prospects for little corn and soy supply to be carried into 2009-10 and the South American problems could make the 2009 US acreage competition more intense than the past 2 years.
July soy futures closed up US$38.03, finishing at US$533.51; August gained US$21.95, closing at US$534.34; and September was up US$20.12, ending at US$528.55.
July soymeal increased US$14.88 closing at US$411.71; August was US$12.90 higher, finishing at US$411.93; and September meal closed up US$11.46, ending at US$406.09.
July soy oil increased US$48.06 to finish at US$1381.18; August was up US$48.28, closing at US$1389.12; and September was US$48.06 higher, closing at US$1396.61.
Census lowers April stocks report
The Census Bureau on June 5 revised lower April soy oil stocks from 1.37 million tonnes to 1.33 million tonnes.
The stocks figures imply unusually low domestic disappearance even after taking into account smaller-than expected biodiesel usage of soyoil, which dropped to 99,300 tonnes in April from 105,000 tonnes in March.
Overall usage of vegetable oils and fats in biodiesel production, however, continued to expand as soy oil's share has declined from a high of 90 percent in early 2007 to 57 percent in April.
The bureau also has released revisions for 2007 that boosted soy oil stocks by 69,900 tonnes to 90,300 tonnes.
Soy oil stocks in excess of 1.36 million tonnes are more than adequate, but soyoil prices nevertheless have fairly limited downside risk.
|
U.S. & South America Soybean/Products Balance | |||||||||
|
|
United States |
Argentina |
Brazil | ||||||
|
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. |
Actual |
Estimate |
Proj. | |
|
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 |
2005/06 |
2006/07 |
2007/08 | |
|
Soybeans |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
6,960 |
12,229 |
15,617 |
174 |
334 |
185 |
1,638 |
2,252 |
3,851 |
|
Production |
83,368 |
86,770 |
70,358 |
40,500 |
48,800 |
47,000 |
57,000 |
59,000 |
61,000 |
|
Imports |
92 |
246 |
163 |
1,013 |
2,359 |
2,600 |
40 |
108 |
130 |
|
Crush |
47,324 |
49,160 |
49,941 |
32,748 |
37,600 |
38,100 |
28,756 |
30,770 |
31,800 |
|
Exports |
25,579 |
30,428 |
27,896 |
7,130 |
12,208 |
10,000 |
24,770 |
23,805 |
27,900 |
|
Other |
5,288 |
4,040 |
4,495 |
1,475 |
1,500 |
1,525 |
2,900 |
2,934 |
2,950 |
|
Usage |
78,191 |
83,628 |
82,332 |
41,353 |
51,308 |
49,625 |
56,426 |
57,509 |
62,650 |
|
Carryout |
12,229 |
15,617 |
3,806 |
334 |
185 |
160 |
2,252 |
3,851 |
2,331 |
|
Soymeal |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
156 |
285 |
318 |
1,686 |
2,003 |
2,076 |
636 |
863 |
1,013 |
|
Production |
37,416 |
39,033 |
39,720 |
25,582 |
29,153 |
29,550 |
22,300 |
23,850 |
24,615 |
|
Domestic use |
30,114 |
31,171 |
32,024 |
574 |
620 |
645 |
10,000 |
11,500 |
12,000 |
|
Net Exports |
7,173 |
7,829 |
7,743 |
24,691 |
28,460 |
29,164 |
12,073 |
12,200 |
12,713 |
|
Usage |
37,287 |
39,000 |
39,767 |
25,265 |
29,080 |
29,809 |
22,073 |
23,700 |
24,713 |
|
Carryout |
285 |
318 |
271 |
2,003 |
2,076 |
1,817 |
863 |
1,013 |
915 |
|
Soybean oil |
thousand tonnes | ||||||||
|
Carryin |
771 |
1,366 |
1,317 |
385 |
487 |
350 |
248 |
300 |
301 |
|
Production |
9,248 |
9,292 |
9,614 |
6,169 |
7,200 |
7,320 |
5,521 |
5,910 |
6,105 |
|
Domestic use |
8,146 |
8,502 |
8,573 |
402 |
597 |
1,135 |
3,172 |
3,450 |
3,640 |
|
Net exports |
507 |
839 |
1,071 |
5,665 |
6,740 |
6,160 |
2,297 |
2,459 |
2,450 |
|
Usage |
8,653 |
9,341 |
9,644 |
6,067 |
7,337 |
7,295 |
5,469 |
5,909 |
6,090 |
|
Carryout |
1,366 |
1,317 |
1,287 |
487 |
350 |
375 |
300 |
301 |
316 |
|
USDA Export Sales (tmt) - Week of 29 May 2008 | ||||||||
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
Country |
Commodity |
New Sales |
Accum. Exports |
|
|
Soybeans |
8.50 |
194.20 |
|
|
Soymeal |
5.00 |
68.70 |
|
|
Soybeans |
1.50 |
126.10 |
|
|
Soymeal |
25.00 |
217.90 |
|
|
Soybeans |
225.40 |
11999.50 |
|
|
Soymeal |
4.20 |
790.10 |
|
|
Soybeans |
1.60 |
15.80 |
|
|
Soymeal |
12.70 |
108.70 |
|
|
Soybeans |
2.40 |
885.10 |
|
|
Soymeal |
35.60 |
448.50 |
|
|
Soybeans |
20.90 |
2165.20 |
|
|
Soymeal |
2.00 |
27.20 |
|
|
Soybeans |
3.10 |
66.80 |
|
|
Soymeal |
3.50 |
95.30 |
|
|
Soybeans |
7.60 |
2792.70 |
|
|
Soymeal |
9.10 |
9.80 |
|
|
Soybeans |
10.80 |
1455.00 |
|
|
Soymeal |
41.10 |
268.10 |
|
|
Soybeans |
2.50 |
398.20 |
|
|
Soyoil |
0.40 |
25.50 |
|
|
Soymeal |
8.60 |
901.80 |
|
|
Soyoil |
1.00 |
26.20 |
|
|
Soymeal |
5.00 |
260.30 |
|
|
Soyoil |
3.50 |
3.30 |
|
Dom. Rep. |
Soymeal |
27.40 |
272.30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Soymeal |
8.00 |
60.20 |
|
Export Sales Totals (tmt) | |||
|
FW IND |
Soymeal |
3.00 |
14.10 |
|
Commodity |
Outstanding Sales |
Accum. Exports |
New Sales |
|
|
Soymeal |
5.90 |
204.10 |
|
Soybeans |
3,590.80 |
26,423.60 |
298.60 |
|
|
Soymeal |
1.50 |
106.60 |
|
Soymeal |
1,403.60 |
5,306.50 |
254.10 |
|
|
Soymeal |
2.10 |
46.90 |
|
Soyoil |
143.10 |
871.50 |
9.10 |
