June 8, 2009

Brazil's estimate for the new 2008-2009 soy crush was lowered to 31.6 million tonnes from 31.8 million tonnes Friday (June 5) by the Brazilian Vegetable Oils Industry Association, or Abiove.

 

Brazil should produce 57.4 million tonnes of soy from the 2008-09 crop, down from Abiove's last estimate of 57.7 million tonnes given April 29.

 

The estimate is in line with Brazil's National Commodities Supply Corp., or Conab, which in May put the crop at 57.6 million tonnes. Conab will issue its next estimate on Monday.

 

Brazil has finished harvesting its soy crop except in a few locations.

 

Abiove raised its export estimate to 24.8 million tonnes in 2008-09 due to strong buying from markets such as China. Abiove's previous export estimate on April 29 was 24.5 million tonnes.

 

Brazil's soy crush numbers are used as a market barometer that measures the size of the national soy crop and supply and demand.

 

Abiove members include the world's largest soy exporting companies, such as Bunge Ltd. and Archer Daniels Midland Co..

 

Abiove said that Brazil should produce 24.1 million tonnes of soymeal in 2008-09, compared to 24.2 million tonnes in its last estimate on April 29. Abiove also said its export estimate was 12.6 million tonnes of soymeal in 2008-09 compared with 12.7 million tonnes in its last estimate.

 

Brazilians are also expected to consume 11.6 million tonnes of soymeal in 2008-09 steady with the April 29 estimate.

 

Abiove said that Brazil should produce 6 million tonnes of soyoil in 2008-09, compared to 6.1 million tonnes in the April estimate.

 

Abiove's export estimate was at 1.75 million tonnes of oil in 2008-09 compared to 1.8 million tonnes on April 29. Local consumption is steady at 4.3 million tonnes of soyoil in 2008-09 compared to the previous estimate.

 

Brazil is the world's No. 2 soy producer after the US.