June 7, 2024

EU's milk output expected to drop slightly as cow numbers fall this year, according to USDA

A new report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) highlighted that EU milk production is forecast to fall slightly as a result of declining cow numbers and lower "production profitability" in 2024.

The report compiled by the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) also draws attention to the fact that the "EU dairy sector continues to have concerns connected to the implementation of the new Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the EU Green Deal initiatives". It states that these are "negatively weighing on farmers' decisions to continue production."

"Strengthening EU environmental and climate mitigation policies would require additional, non-productive investments and further erode dairy farming profitability," the report also details.

According to analysis by FAS, EU milk deliveries will fall below 2023 levels.

"Since the beginning of 2023, farmers in the EU have had to cope with consistently declining farm-gate prices of milk combined with still elevated production costs," the report states. "This trend is weighing on their margins in 2024, resulting in the elimination of smaller and less efficient farms, and negatively affecting EU27 cow herd numbers."

The report also highlights that "declining cow inventories" in the EU are expected to be only partially offset by increasing cow productivity which will result in marginally lower milk deliveries in 2024.

According to the USDA report, domestic milk consumption is expected to continue to decline.

"With lower milk production in 2024, factory use consumption is also forecast to minimally decrease by 0.3% in 2024," it says. "This will require dairy processors to carefully decide for which products they will use the available milk."

- Agriland