June 6, 2012

US 2012 agricultural exports to EU to drop on-year

The fiscal 2012 agricultural exports of the US to the EU are seen at US$134.5 billion, US$3.5 billion more than the February forecast, but is US$2.9 billion lower than fiscal 2011 exports.

Grain exports are forecast up from February indications, with increased values for wheat, rice, and feed and fodders more than offsetting a reduction for coarse grains.

Oilseeds are up on higher prices and volume, while cotton is up solely on volume. Horticultural exports are up on strong tree nut exports. The forecast for livestock, poultry, and dairy is up US$400 million on increased exports of dairy, poultry, pork, and variety meats. Exports to the top three markets, Mexico, Canada, and China, are all raised. Exports to the EU are down US$1.5 billion due to increased grain and oilseed competition.

US import demand continues strong, lifting estimated import value by US$1 billion to US$107.5 billion from the US$106.5 billion projected in February. Increases are forecast for vegetable oils, oilseeds, oilmeal, bulk grains, and beef and veal imports.

Larger imports of rapeseed oil from Canada are leading the vegetable oil gains. These import increases were partly offset by projected declines for horticultural products and for sugar and tropical products. Smaller import projections for sugar and rubber offset gains from coffee beans.

Given that the forecast for exports is up US$3.5 billion, compared with the February forecast, while imports are rising only US$1 billion, the trade balance for 2012 is a surplus of US$27 billion, still lower than the record US$43 billion in 2011.