June 5, 2009

World 2009-10 wheat trade is expected to fall by 10 million tonnes due to a 4.2 percent drop in global production, the UN's Food and Agriculture Organization said Thursday (June 4).

The FAO estimates 2009-10 world wheat production will fall to 655.8 million tonnes from the record high of 684.8 million tonnes the previous year. The contraction in world wheat trade to 114 million tonnes in 2009-10 is expected to be focussed on developed countries, said the FAO.

However, stocks in countries expecting the largest declines in wheat production - including the US, Russia and Ukraine - should be adequate to buffer the fall, according to the FAO's latest Food Outlook report.

World wheat stocks at the close of the 2009-10 season are expected at 192 million tonnes, up from 191 million tonnes in 2008-09 due to overall supplies slightly exceeding demand, said the FAO.

"Given the prospects for much smaller world trade in the 2009-10 season, competition among exporters for international market share is set to intensify," said the report.

Importing countries in North Africa in particular, including Morocco and Algeria, are expected to produce larger crops, trimming their demand on the international market.