June 3, 2025
Philippines' corn imports seen falling on low feed demand
The Philippines' corn imports could be slashed by over a third this year as animal diseases like African swine fever (ASF) and bird flu are eroding demand for the feedstuff.
The Department of Agriculture (DA) has projected that the country's purchases of imported corn will reach 1.22 million metric tonnes (MMT) in 2025, 36.5 % lower than the 1.92 MMT recorded in the previous year.
According to Philippine Maize Federation Inc. (PhilMaize) President Romualdo Elvira Jr., the DA's outlook could be attributed to a lacklustre demand for corn.
"[There's] low demand for feeds. The swine and poultry population are still in the process of recovering from ASF and avian influenza," Elvira told the BusinessMirror on Wednesday.
However, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) noted in its latest report that the Philippines will import 2 million metric tonnes (MMT) of corn next year due to brisk demand for food and animal feeds.
The USDA attributed the increase in the Philippines's purchases of imported corn to the "robust demand supporting sustained growth."
"Based on an evaluation of data from the Government of the Philippines, FSI [food, seed, and industrial] consumption of corn has been revised higher to 4.2 million tonnes for 2024/25 and 2025/26," the international agency said in its report.
The USDA also projected that purchases of the key ingredient for animal feeds would reach 1.75 MMT this year.
BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, expects global corn consumption to reach 1.23 billion tonnes this year, a slight increase from the 1.22 billion tonnes recorded last year. It also projected that global output in the 2024/25 season will dip by 1.2 %.
However, the international research firm noted that the uptick in demand coupled with a projected reduction in global output could shift the market to a "substantial" deficit of 18.7 MMT this year, from a production surplus of 4.9 MMT in the previous year.
"This shift is expected to provide upward support for corn prices in the coming months."
As a further consequence, the BMI noted a steep decline in stock levels among major corn exporters.
Citing the USDA's projection, the research firm said carryover stocks in the US for the upcoming 2025/26 season could fall by 16.9 % year-on-year to 37.2 MMT.
Furthermore, Brazilian carryover stocks are forecast to plummet by 60.1 % annually to 3 MMT, while the EU and Ukraine are also expected to enter the 2025/26 season with beginning stocks reduced by 8 % and 30.9 %, respectively.
"This significant drawdown in domestic stocks across key exporters is likely to heighten market sensitivity to harvest progressions and contribute to an elevated risk premium in global corn markets," it said.
"As such, these dynamics are expected to continue underpinning global prices, reflecting increased vulnerability to supply disruptions and reinforcing the importance of monitoring developments in crucial production regions."
- Business Mirror
