June 3, 2011

 

Forecast of US winter wheat crop decreases

 

 

The 2011 US winter wheat harvest is estimated to be the least in five years and lower than the last forecast, according to Analytical firm Informa Economics.

 

Informa projects a crop of 1.421 billion bushels, down from the firm's May 6 forecast of 1.441 billion, trade sources said on Thursday (Jun 2).

 

The figure was close to the USDA latest US winter wheat production forecast of 1.424 billion bushels.

 

By class, Informa pegged U.S. production of hard red winter wheat at 764 million bushels and soft red winter wheat at 422 million bushels. The firm estimated production of winter white wheat at 236 million bushels.

 

On global production, Informa estimated China's 2011/12 corn output at 180 million tonnes, up 11 million from the firm's previous estimate due to increased planted acreage.

 

The figure was above USDA's 2011/12 China corn production forecast of 172 million tonnes.

 

Informa lowered its forecast of EU-27 wheat production for 2011/12 to 135.0 million tonnes, down 5.4 million from its previous forecast, citing dry weather.

 

USDA's current 2011/12 EU-27 wheat production forecast is for 138.62 million tonnes.

 

Informa trimmed its estimate of Canada's 2011/12 wheat harvest 27.1 million tonnes, down 500,000 from the firm's previous forecast due to poor planting weather. But the figure was above USDA's current forecast of 26 million tonnes.

 

The firm raised its estimate of Brazil's 2010/11 soy harvest to 74.4 million tonnes, up 1.3 million from its previous estimate and above USDA's latest estimate of 73 million tonnes.

 

USDA was scheduled to release updated US and world crop production estimates on June 9.