June 2, 2022

Ukraine's 2022 wheat harvest expected to drop 42% to 19.2 million tonnes

Ukrainian grain traders' union UGA said the country's 2022 wheat harvest is expected to drop 42% from a record 33 million tonnes last year to 19.2 million tonnes, but reduced exports could see stocks reach record levels, Reuters reported.

Officials and analysts from Ukraine said conflicts in many regions could make harvest impossible, but the UGA did not clarify a reason for the reduced harvest.

The UGA also said corn production in the country could drop from 37.6 million tonnes in 2021 to 26.1 million tonnes this year.

The union estimates Ukraine will ship 10 million tonnes of wheat and 15 million tonnes of corn, but the country's current export capacity cannot surpass 18 million tonnes.

The UGA said in a statement that exports from Ukraine could reach 30 million tonnes in the new season if the throughput capacity of Ukraine's border crossings is doubled.

In times of peace, Ukraine, a key global grain grower and exporter, exports up to 6 million tonnes of grain per month. Its exports plummeted after the Russian invasion, which began on February 24, shut down Black Sea ports.

In May, grain exports were around 1.06 million tonnes, down from 1.1 million tonnes in April.

Grain stocks could reach a new high of 25 million tonnes as a result of the sharp drop in exports, according to the union, and could reach 43 million tonnes in the worst-case scenario by the end of next season.

-      Reuters