Global 2010-11 soy crop to fall marginally

 

 

The global soy crop in the upcoming 2010-11 season is likely to fall 5.1% on-year to 253.8 million tonnes but surging stocks will keep supplies ample, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World forecast on Tuesday (June 1).

 

Unsold soy stocks at the end of the current 2009-10 season are expected to rise to 70.3 million tonnes from only 45.8 million tonnes at the end of 2008-09. Coupled with a rise in other oilseed crops, overall supplies will still be ample in the new season, it said.

 

The US 2010-11 soy crop for harvesting in summer 2010 is likely to fall marginally on the year to 91.0 million tonnes from 91.42 million tonnes, it said in its first new season forecast.

 

Argentina's 2010-11 soy crop was likely to fall to 51.0 million tonnes from 54.3 million tonnes and Brazil's to 66.50 million tonnes from 67.86 million tonnes. But this season's large South American soy crops will keep overall supplies good, although farmers in Argentina especially are hoarding the new crop in the hope of higher prices, it said.

 

Oil World said that with the record southern hemisphere soy production of 134 million tonnes, mostly harvested in February-May 2010, world supplies of soy have become ample, although the bearish price impact has been delayed by reserved farmer selling. Analysts estimate that world soy stocks to recover strongly to around 70 million tonnes in end-August 2010. Soy stocks at the end of 2010-11 are likely to be even higher at 75.8 million tonnes, it estimates.

 

In addition, it noted that a burdensome supply outlook is shaping up in the US, where producers and exporters will face sharply increased competition from South America.