May 30, 2024

Rabobank projects future trends in US grain and oilseed markets

Rabobank has released its annual 10-year outlook on US grain and oilseeds, providing an in-depth analysis of the future trajectory of US corn, wheat, and soybean markets through the 2033/34 season, Seed World reported.

The report showed US corn and soybean exports are projected to increase over the coming years, while wheat exports are expected to remain stagnant. As production rises, the US will need to rely on exports to balance supply and demand. However, competition from Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, and Russia is expected to intensify, challenging US market share.

US-planted corn and soybean acreage will continue a downward trend, with combined acres staying below the 180 million mark. All three major crops - corn, wheat, and soybeans - will remain under 230 million acres. Lower prices and compressed margins are discouraging expansion in these areas.

Farmgate prices are predicted to ease from the highs seen in 2021/22 due to increased production from rising yields. However, soybean prices might increase because of new crushing capacity, which could heighten competition for acreage and drive-up prices across the board.

The report examines two critical scenarios that could disrupt the baseline model - lower-than-expected US corn exports and reduced corn and soybean yields. These scenarios underscore the significant variability in the corn balance sheet and emphasise the importance of strategic planning for stakeholders.

-      Seed World