Black Sea states to cut grain production, raise exports

Major grain producers in the Black Sea region including Ukraine, Russia and Kazakhstan are likely to trim grain production in 2010 but may increase exports after a rise in 2009/10 supplies, according to UkrAgroConsult.

 

The consultancy said in a statement the three states could harvest 152.12 million tonnes of grain in 2010 compared with 163.41 million in 2009. It said a decrease in grain yield to 1.96 tonnes per hectare in 2010 from 2.12 in 2009 was the main reason for the smaller harvest.

 

But UkrAgroConsult said the countries were likely to accumulate about 31.4 million tonnes of grain in stocks at the beginning of the 2010/11 season which runs from July to June compared with 25.79 million a season earlier.

 

"High carry-over stocks in Russia and Kazakhstan will compensate the grain production decline. The stocks in Ukraine are not so big due to high exports in 2009/10. Total supply of grain is estimated lower in Ukrainian driving down the exports potential in the new season," UkrAgroConsult said.

 

The consultancy said grain exports could rise by 0.6% to 48.490 million tonnes in the 2010/11 season from 48.185 million in 2009/10.