May 24, 2024

USDA forecasts record global soybean harvest of 422.3 million tonnes for 2024/25

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects a record global soybean harvest of 422.3 million tonnes for the 2024/25 season, a 6% increase, or 25.4 million tonnes higher, compared to the 2023/24 harvest, Biofuels International reported.

The USDA's optimistic outlook is largely based on expected increases in Brazil's soybean production. Despite flooding and unfavourable weather conditions impacting this year's harvest, Brazil's output is anticipated to reach 169 million tonnes.

This would surpass the previous year's production by 15 million tonnes and set a record high. Brazil, the world's leading soybean producer, is projected to account for more than half of the global increase.

In the US, soybean production is expected to rise by 7.8 million tonnes, reaching 121.1 million tonnes. Argentina is forecasted to maintain its position as the third-largest producer with an output of 51 million tonnes, up by 1 million tonnes from the previous year.

It is important to note that the global production forecast is tentative, as soybean sowing in South America does not commence until mid-October. Nonetheless, the USDA estimate serves as a crucial market indicator.

Meanwhile, US soybean sowing is progressing swiftly. By early May, 25% of the anticipated cropland had been sown, marking a 7-percentage point increase from the previous week and a 21-percentage point rise above the long-standing average.

In addition to increased production, the USDA also expects global soybean consumption to rise in 2024/25. The forecast suggests that consumption will reach approximately 402 million tonnes, an increase of 18.2 million tonnes from the previous year.

According to Agrarmarkt Informations-Gesellschaft, with a projected global production of 422.3 million tonnes, there will be an expected supply surplus of 20.6 million tonnes.

-      Biofuels International