May 23, 2012


Russia's 2012-13 wheat output to fall to 53 million tonnes


In the 2012-13 agricultural year, Russia's wheat harvest is expected to fall to 53 million tonnes, down from 56 million tonnes in the current year; while exports will drop even more because stocks have been decimated, top Russian grain analysts said on Tuesday (May 22).


In the year to June 30, 2012, a period of record grain exports, SovEcon analysts said Russia would export a total of 20.5 million tonnes of wheat. However, exports could be only 14 million tonnes in the coming year because of lower overall availability.


Stocks are particularly low in Russia's key southern export region, the closest to Russia's main Black Sea export outlets, after record exports cleaned out elevators.


"The south will have to bring in (volumes for export). It will have to bring them in by road and rail from far off regions," SovEcon Chief Executive Andrei Sizov Sr. said.


"There is a logistics element and the costs of delivering grain to terminal are growing," Sizov said. "The grain will become more expensive because of these additional costs."

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