May 21, 2024

 

US soybean meal exports set to reach third consecutive record despite Argentine recovery

 

 


US soybean meal exports are projected to achieve a third consecutive record in the upcoming 2024-25 marketing year, even as Argentina, the top meal exporter, recovers from last year's devastating soybean harvest, Reuters reported.

 

The recent expansion in US soybean processing has further fuelled the surge in meal exports, with shipment rates expected to rise more rapidly than those for crush.

 

According to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), soybean meal exports for the 2024-25 marketing year are forecasted to reach a record 15.7 million metric tonnes, marking a 9.5% increase from the previous year. This growth surpasses the 8% export increases observed in the last two marketing years, during which domestic crush rose by an average of 2% annually. US crush is anticipated to rise by 5.4% in 2024-25.

 

US soybean meal exports have been particularly significant since the second half of 2022-23, following Argentina's soybean crop devastation by a historic drought. While Argentina's soybean crush and meal exports hit 18-year lows, recent harvest progress suggests a potential recovery, with output expected to nearly double year-ago levels, possibly reaching five-year highs.

 

Despite Argentina's rebound, the USDA estimates continued growth in Argentine crush and meal exports for the 2024-25 season. This could potentially impact US meal export expansion, although competition from Brazil might ease as Brazil focuses more on raw bean shipments to China.

 

While soybean processing capacity has increased globally, particularly in major importers like Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa, this trend may limit global meal exports. However, if U.S. supplies remain ample due to robust processing levels, US meal could remain competitively priced and attractive to importers.

 

USDA projections indicate average US cash soymeal prices at a five-year low of US$330 per short tonne in 2024-25, down 13% from the previous year. Despite this, US soybean processing continues to expand, accounting for a significant share of total soybean use, with China's increasing preference for Brazilian soybeans further driving the shift towards US crush.

 

Despite record volumes, recent years have not fully met expectations for US soybean crush. While US soybean processing has often exceeded initial projections in previous years, recent months have shown lower-than-expected crush figures, potentially influenced by lower soybean crush margins and product prices.

 

-      Reuters

Video >

Follow Us

FacebookTwitterLinkedIn