May 21, 2007

 

Seasonal demand keeps US cattle, hog slaughter rates high

 

 

Seasonal demand for red meat is cited for pushing slaughter rates for cattle and hogs to current high levels, and is expected to keep them there at least for a few more weeks.

 

"It is time for a seasonal increase in (cattle) slaughter," said David Hales, market analyst of Hales Cattle Letter, in an emailed response to questions. Steer and heifer slaughter peaks seasonally during May and June and then drifts off through the balance of the year.

 

Last year, this week's slaughter was 702,000 head, followed by 695,000, 613,000, 711,000, 707,000, 708,000 and 706,000 during the last week of June, Hales said.

 

The May and June slaughter peaks are a direct result of seasonal feedlot placement patterns, Hales said. These seasonal tendencies are a result of changing seasons and the primary breeding cycle of the beef herd.

 

Droughts and winter weather can alter placement patterns, weights and performance from time to time, but it's hard to overcome the nature of the animals.

 

Compounding the issue this year is the lighter steer and heifer carcass weights, Hales said. While carcass weights for the week of April 28 rose two pounds, they remain six pounds below last year, and heifer carcasses are seven pounds below a year ago.

 

Dan Vaught, market analyst for AG Edwards & Sons, said the current price of beef and pork is keeping the desire to kill cattle and hogs high. He says the limiting factor is the number that are available, especially in hog country.

 

A round of circo virus in the fall and early winter is showing up now in the form of tight supplies and strong prices, Vaught said.

 

Cattle/hog slaughters

 

US cattle slaughter this week was estimated at 702,000 head, compared with 669,000 a week ago and 702,000 a year ago. Year-to-date cattle slaughter stands at 12.608 million head, up 2.5 percent from a year ago.

 

The USDA estimated the week's hog slaughter at 1.952 million head, compared with 1.934 million a week ago and 1.958 million a year ago. The year-to-date total is 40.273 million head, up 1.8 percent from a year ago.

 

Total meat production

 

The US Department of Agriculture estimated total beef, pork and lamb production for the week at 924.0 million pounds, compared with 897.4 million last week and 936.8 million a year ago. Year-to-date combined meat output is 17.873 billion pounds, up 1.4 percent from last year.

 

Broiler/fryer slaughter for the week was estimated at 161.829 million head, compared with 165.839 million a week ago and 164.848 million a year ago.