May 18, 2004

 

 

US Corn, Soy, Spring Wheat Stay On Fast Pace

 

U.S. corn, soybean and spring wheat planting progress continue at a rapid pace, and emergence of the newly sown crops is also ahead of schedule, according to data released Monday afternoon by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

 

Winter wheat condition, while still above the five-year average in the good-to-excellent category rating, did taper off a bit.

 

CORN

 

U.S. corn planting was 92% completed, an eight-percentage-point jump from last week. The 92% rate is 19 percentage-points higher than last year and 15 percentage points higher than the five-year average. Doug Hjort, an independent marketing consultant based in Iowa, said the rate "is one of the fastest paces we have ever had."

 

The key producing states - Illinois, Indiana and Iowa - all were nearly done with planting, especially Illinois and Iowa, which were 98% planted. Michigan and Wisconsin were slightly behind the pace the rest of the corn belt set. Hjort said this was due to the Great Lakes states being hit with a lot of rain

 

The emergence rate for corn also continued its record pace, increasing by nearly 30 percentage points to 63% from 36% last week. This was 19 percentage points above the five-year average. Joel Karlin, research analyst at Integrated Grain & Milling, said the emergence rate and the planted rate were exactly what the market expected.

 

SOYBEANS

 

The soybean crop followed corn's success, having a 19-percentage-point jump from last week to 54% planted, 18 points over the five-year average. The average emergence rate opened up 6% higher than the five-year average at a rate of 19%.

 

Karlin described this as a very positive opening week. Just like the corn, it is also what most market watchers were predicting, he said.

 

The main soy states of Illinois (at 57%), Indiana (66%) and Iowa (76%) all had extremely high planting rates. Each of these percentages was well above the five-year averages of 40% for Illinois, 46% for Indiana and 39% for Iowa. Meanwhile, southern states such as Tennessee, North Carolina and Kentucky were not very far ahead of the five-year average.

 

"Down South, they plant at a more leisurely pace anyway," Hjort said. "No frost concern later on in the year."

 

Wisconsin was behind its five-year rate, 29%, by seven points because of too much rain, he said.

 

SPRING WHEAT

 

U.S. spring wheat planting also had a successful week and is now 15 percentage points higher with 90% of crop planted. Washington, Idaho and South Dakota all are over 99% planted.

 

Hjort said the emergence rate of 62%, which is still 18 percentage-points ahead of the five-year average, did slow down a bit. However, he said, that would make sense when considering the colder weather in those states.

 

Despite the above-average rate, he said, a lot of things can happen between now and harvest. "If I were to pick a yield estimate, I would pick an average yield. Planting early certainly helps, but you still need moisture into July," he said.

 

WINTER WHEAT

 

Winter wheat crop ratings remained the same at 45% rated good to excellent, and only 24% rated very poor to poor. This still is behind the five-year averages, which are 53% and 19%, respectively.

 

The top wheat-producing state, Kansas, remained constant at 35% good to excellent, despite receiving a late frost in the northwest portion of the state late last week.

 

"Lots of times (frost) damage takes a little while (to show)," Karlin said. "Actually (we) need the temperature to warm up to ascertain the damage incurred. So, the damage could take effect next week."

 

Hjort said that Kansas was a tough one to call when it comes to predicting the eventual total yield, not just the percent in good-to- excellent condition.

 

"Just a little frost will kill pollen; so there would be no kernels," he said. "(The) wheat will look good, but there will be no kernels in the head."

 

Hjort said it all depends on the amount of crop that was flowering, which is difficult to do. However, he will assume that a very small portion of it was in the flowering stage.

 

Michigan and Montana both had drops in their percentage of crop rated good to excellent, with Michigan leading the way with a seven-percentage- points fall. Hjort said the drop in Michigan was due to too much rain.

 

Winter wheat is at 69% headed, which remained slightly above the 61% five- year average. It also was a 14-percentage-point jump from last week.

 

Source: USDA