May 17, 2023

 

Recovery anticipated for Vietnam's live hog prices

 

 

Vietnam's live hog prices are expected to recover after bottoming out, according to the Agribank Securities Joint Stock Company (Agriseco).

 

Agriseco believes that hog prices may recover this year due to rising demand for food as Vietnam's tourism and service industries get back into momentum.

 

Ha Thu Hien, an analyst from the VNDIRECT Securities Joint Stock Company, said the domestic hog price had recovered after six consecutive months of decline. The volume of pigs sold off to the market due to the impact of African swine fever (ASF) had gradually decreased. While concerns about oversupply had subsided as farmers stopped reherding activities. Large livestock enterprises also had not yet planned to expand their pig herds.

 

Additionally, supply from smallholder farmers dropped sharply after a long period of losses due to a sharp increase in feed prices while live hog prices remained low.

 

Currently, there is no sign of a shortage of pork as in the first quarter of 2023, the total pig herd in Vietnam increased by 6.2% on year, equivalent to the period before ASF and live hog production increased by 7.5% on year, according to Hien.

 

After the price drop in the first quarter of 2023, the domestic live hog prices started a slight increase from the beginning of April of 5.3% on month and 0.1% compared to the beginning of this year. But it was still below 3.5% on year.

 

Live hog prices are expected to increase slightly in the second quarter of 2023 and will improve further in the third quarter of 2023 when the demand for pork recovers.

 

However, VNDIRECT does not expect farmers to reherd significantly in the short term.

 

The Vietnam Livestock Association said that there were about 45-50% of large farms suspending production while 70-75% of medium-size and small farms and livestock households temporarily stopping reherding. Furthermore, input costs have surged and the selling price is low.

 

Despite the prospect of recovery, meat producers are hesitant to make plans to expand production, according to VNDIRECT.

 

The two leading enterprises in the livestock industry, the Dabaco Vietnam Group Joint Stock Company and the Masan MEATLife Joint Stock Company have not yet announced specific expansion plans.

 

- Vietnam Net Global