May 16, 2012

Oil World lowers EU's 2012 rapeseed crop forecast

EU's 2012 rapeseed crop forecast has been cut again by Oil World on Tuesday (May 15) by 0.1 million tonnes because of bad weather.

The EU crop will fall to a six-year low of 18.10 million tonnes from 19.12 million tonnes in 2011 after poor autumn sowing weather and a bitterly cold winter which damaged plants, Oil World said.

This follows a cut of 0.27 million tonnes in Oil World's harvest forecast on May 1. Rapeseed oil is the EU's main edible oil and rapeseed oil is also widely used for biodiesel output.

France's crop will fall to 5.15 million tonnes from 5.37 million tonnes in 2011 and Poland's will fall to 1.60 million tonnes from 1.87 million tonnes, it said.

Germany's harvest will rise to 4.45 million tonnes against 3.78 million tonnes last year. Britain's 2.72 million tonnes will be close to the record 2.76 million tonne harvest last year, Oil World said.

"The reduced production will raise EU import requirements of rapeseed," Oil World said. Oil World also warned of a poor crop in Ukraine, a major rapeseed supplier to the EU.

Ukraine's 2012 rapeseed crop will fall to 0.95 million tonnes from 1.32 million tonnes last year, Oil World estimates.

"Ukrainian exports will decline sharply owing to the very small crop next season," it said. "This will raise the global dependence on Canadian and Australian rapeseed export supplies and will keep prices of rapeseed well supported."