May 16, 2012

Brazil's 2011/12 soy crop seen 14% lower on-year

The 2011/12 soy output of Brazil is forecast at 65 million tonnes, one million tonnes lower from April and down 10.5 million or 14% from last year.

Area is estimated at a record 25 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 0.8 million or 3% from last year.

Yield is estimated at 2.60 tonnes per hectare, down 2% from last month and down 10% from the five-year average.

Brazil's soy harvest is 97% completed. The last states to harvest are Bahia with 85% harvest completed and Rio Grande do Sul with 93% complete. Soy production was lowered by one million tonnes this month due to lower than expected harvest reports in the states of Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul.

This year's soy yields will be lower than last year's record yields for most states in Brazil, even though both years occurred during La Niña events. A severe La Niña drought this year reduced yields by more than 30% in the southern state of Paraná and by more than 40% in Rio Grande do Sul.