May 14, 2009

Rainfall in recent days may help the corn crop in Brazil's southern Parana state, but hefty losses are still expected, analysts said Wednesday (May 13).

 

The rain may help ease the dryness and add moisture to the brittle soil, but it is too early to say whether this will trim losses, according to a technical specialist at Parana's agricultural secretariat, or Seab.

 

"The rain is good news for the corn crop," said technical specialist Otmar Hubner.

 

Farmers in Parana, Brazil's No. 2 corn producing state, are starting the harvest and this will gather pace in June and July.

 

Celso Oliveira, a meteorologist at private weather forecaster Somar, said that Parana towns such as Cascavel and Toledo should see around five millimetres of rain on Wednesday and over 30 millimeters on Thursday.

 

Temperatures should rise to above the mid-20 degrees Celsius on Wednesday, according to Somar.

 

Parana's second corn crop is likely to fall nine percent to 5.8 million tonnes from its preliminary forecast in January. This is due to damage caused as a result of two months of dry weather, said Hubner.

 

Seab said that Parana's two corn crops should generate almost 12 million tonnes in 2008-09.

 

Pedro Collussi, a grains analyst at Brazilian agricultural consultancy AgraFNP, said that the rain may help the corn to recover in some areas.

 

But, Collussi agreed it is still too early to estimate whether the rain will reduce the losses. He expects the second corn crop to be around 5.5 million tons versus 5.3 million tonnes a year ago.

 

Michael Cordonnier, president of Soybean & Corn Advisor, a consulting firm in Illinois, pegs Brazil's total corn production at 48 million tonnes.

 

Both of Brazil's corn crops have been bad this season, with dry weather reducing volumes in the first and second corn crop, he said.

 

Parana's farmers saw their first corn crop reduced by a drought at the end of 2008 and in early 2009 and this has now happened again for the second corn crop, he said.

 

Corn is Brazil's No. 2 crop in acreage behind soy, the country's leading farm commodity.