US corn crop seen to surge on lower wheat and soy

The US corn crop is expected to continue getting larger as farmers produce less wheat and soy, the USDA said Tuesday (May 11).

The USDA report, predicted US corn production will reach 13.37 billion bushels in 2010, up from 13.11 billion bushels produced last year and up from earlier forecast for this year of 13.16 billion bushels that the USDA made in February.

More planting this year by farmers outweighed an expected decline in yields when USDA made this latest forecast for corn production, the department said. The new average yield expected this year is 163.5 bushels per acre, down from last year's record-setting 164.7 bushels per acre, the USDA said.

Along with the bigger crop this year, domestic use and exports will also be stronger, but ending stocks are also expected to be a bit higher than last year. The new forecast for 2010-11 marketing year ending stocks is 1.818 billion bushels, up from last year's 1.738 billion bushels.

Corn going to ethanol this year - part of the USDA's domestic use calculation - should total 4.6 billion bushels, the USDA said. This is up 4.4 billion bushels that went into the fuel last year.

"Exports are projected up 3% with larger supplies and lower prices, but rising foreign feed grain supplies - mostly corn - will limit US export growth in 2010-11,” USDA said.

The USDA is now predicting US corn exports will be two billion bushels for 2010-11, up from 1.95 billion bushels in 2009-10.

Meanwhile, the USDA lowered its estimate for US corn production from the 2009-10 marketing year after late government surveys were completed of harvested area and yields for North Dakota and South Dakota.

The surveys, which USDA said a month ago it needed to do due to the late harvest in the two states, pushed the 2009-10 production estimate down to 13.11 billion bushels, down from 13.131 billion bushels.