Highlights

US export to weaken 24 percent   Wheat stocks to more than double   World wheat production to reach record   Soy stocks not affected by increased soy production

May 12, 2008

 

US wheat and soy production to rise 16 percent for 2008-09

 

 

US soy and wheat production for the 2008-09 marketing year would rise significantly, according to new forecasts released Friday by the USDA.

 

High prices and strong demand have prompted US farmers to plant more wheat, pushing up the 2008-09 forecast to 2.392 billion bushels, a 16-percent increase from the 2007-08 marketing year, the USDA said in its monthly supply and demand report.

 

Although domestic food demand for wheat is expected to rise this year, exports are seen weakening and ending stocks more than doubling.

 

Exports for 2008-09 are expected to be down 24 percent from 2007-08 to 975 million bushels while ending stocks are projected at 483 million bushels more than double the current year's projected 239 million.

 

World wheat production in 2008-09 is now predicted to reach a record 656.01 million metric tonnes, the USDA said.

 

"Higher production is projected for most of the world's major exporting countries including Australia, Canada, (the European Union), Russia and the Ukraine."

 

US farmers are also expected to produce 16 percent more soy this year than 2007, according to the USDA report. The new forecast is for 3.105 billion bushels, up from the 2.585 billion produced in 2007.

 

The 2008-09 marketing year soy crush is forecast 10 million bushels more than 2007-08, even as exports are expected to slip by 40 million.

 

Although soy production is expected to be up, it is not expected to lead to a huge buildup in ending stocks.

 

New USDA forecast for 2008-09 soy ending stocks is 185 million bushels, up 40 million bushels from the previous year.