May 11, 2026
 

Global fishmeal production falls 28% in Q1 2026 as Peru quota cuts and weak China demand weigh on market

Peru's anchovy season uncertainty and softening demand from China's aquaculture and livestock sectors add pressure to an already tighter marine ingredients supply outlook.

Global fishmeal production dropped 28% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, with March output alone falling 38% from the same month a year earlier, according to the latest bulletin from the Marine Ingredients Organisation (IFFO).

Fish oil production also declined, though at a more moderate pace, with first-quarter output down 12% year-on-year. Denmark, Norway and Spain showed greater resilience in fish oil production compared with other producing nations. Production data covers IFFO members in Chile, Denmark, the Faroe Islands, Iceland, Ivory Coast, Mauritius, Norway, Peru, South Africa, Spain, the United Kingdom and the United States, which together account for approximately 40% of global fishmeal production and 50% of fish oil output.

Peru, which typically accounts for about 20% of global fishmeal and fish oil production, remains a key variable for global supply. The country set its anchovy quota for the first season of its north-central fishery at 1.91 million metric tonnes, a 36% reduction from the same season last year. High levels of juvenile anchovy have prompted fishing restrictions and voluntary suspensions by producers, raising doubts over whether the full quota will be landed. IFFO Market Research Director Enrico Bachis noted that the current biomass estimate is approximately 31% higher than the September 2025 estimate but 35% lower than a year earlier and around 17% below the long-term average for January-to-March surveys between 1996 and 2025.

Demand conditions in China are also showing signs of strain. Domestic aquaculture output and aquafeed production for major specialty species increased year-on-year through March, supported in part by high inventory levels. However, IFFO warned that elevated stocks could limit restocking activity in the next production cycle. Farm-gate prices for several species including largemouth black bass, snakehead and yellow catfish remained weak during the quarter, raising concerns that producers may scale back output later in the year, which could weigh on feed ingredient demand during the third quarter — typically the busiest period for aquaculture activity.

China's livestock sector is facing similar headwinds. Piglet prices have eased amid oversupply and weaker-than-expected demand, increasing the risk of losses for farmers restocking herds at current price levels and potentially reducing short-term demand for piglet feed and fishmeal.

On the feed ingredient side, soybean meal prices declined on ample supply and weaker demand, while corn prices remained relatively stable. China's soybean imports in the first quarter of 2026 fell 3.1% year-on-year, according to China Customs data.

- IFFO