Crop in US wheat heartland to shrink 10%

America's biggest wheat growing state is on course for a 10% drop in production, as lower hopes for yields compound the impact of a sharp drop in sowings.

Kansas will produce 333.5 million bushels of wheat this year, 36.1 million bushels less than last year's harvest, according to experts. The figure reflects a yield forecast of 40.7 bushels per acre, down 1.3 bushels per acre on the 2008 result, as well as a slide in sowings.

Kansas farmers planted 700,000 fewer acres of winter wheat, echoing a nationwide trend as growers farmers abandoned the grain in the face of low prices and late corn and soy harvests which tied up many fields with standing crops.

Nonetheless, the production estimate could have been lower were it not for an assumption that less crop would be lost to factors such as bad weather this year. Experts’ estimate appears to assume that less than 5% of the crop will be lost, compared with 5.4% last year and 17.3% in 2007.

While the crop faces a cold snap this weekend, assessors believe this does not pose a significant threat.

Figures fell below market expectations of a 44.2 bushels-per-acre yield and production of nearly 359 million bushels after USDA crop condition data showed Kansas wheat in fine health.

However, analysts said that there was still time for the crop to meet more optimistic forecasts, as happened last year when final yields beat experts’ estimates.

Kansas, the biggest US grower of winter-wheat, accounted for 26% of total harvested areas in the nation last year, according to the USDA.