May 9, 2024

 

Swine industry sees potential growth amid stabilising herd numbers, Rabobank reports

Rabobank's latest quarterly report for the second quarter of 2024 indicates a significant turning point in the swine industry, with sow herd numbers beginning to stabilise following a period of decline, as factors such as favourable consumption trends and reduced production costs across most regions contribute to a positive outlook for swine prices, Meat + Poultry reported.

 

According to the report, conditions are conducive for more producers to rebuild their herds. However, regions facing ongoing health challenges or higher regulatory costs may experience a slower recovery pace.

 

Christine McCracken, senior analyst of animal protein at Rabobank, said the industry's improved supply-demand balance has led to a slowdown in herd contraction. Although meaningful growth in the breeding herd is not anticipated until late 2024 or early 2025, productivity enhancements are contributing to increased production.

 

Rabobank noted that the US, Canada, and China are witnessing healthier herds, translating into greater hog availability.

 

Furthermore, global stocks of grains and oilseeds have increased, leading to lower feed costs. South America's robust crop production has further alleviated prices, benefiting producers worldwide.

 

Rabobank predicts a modest improvement in global pork production this year due to improved economic conditions in several regions and a favourable pork cost.

 

Despite a dip in consumption in key Asian markets during the first quarter of 2024, pork remains a cost-effective protein choice globally, especially amidst rising beef prices.

 

In the European Union, pork consumption is expected to stabilise as prices normalise after months of elevation, while North America's per capita pork consumption is expected to remain steady or decrease slightly.

 

Rabobank anticipates a slight rebound in pork exports in 2024, driven by production stabilisation.

 

The European Union's decline in production and reduced import demand has created a gap in global export markets, swiftly filled by competing nations, primarily in North and South America.

 

The US is poised to surpass the European Union in annual pork export volume, with Brazil's pork exports projected to outpace those from Canada.

 

Despite a steep drop in China's pork imports during the first two months of 2024, Rabobank foresees a rebound in the second quarter as local market conditions evolve.

 

-      Meat + Poultry