May 9, 2011
US wheat forecast declines
After a brief tour around the state, the volume of the Kansas wheat crop was approximately 256.7 million bushels and that is the lowest forecast since 1996, according to Aaron Harries, marketing director for Kansas Wheat and one of the participants in the tour.
Even with planting difficulties in North Dakota, it is unlikely for Kansas to have much chance to regain the title as the wheat state.
Throughout the state, Harries said the tour found inconsistency and variability in the wheat stands.
"The need for rain is the only consistent thing," he said.
As expected, he said, the best wheat was found in the central part of the state, along the Interstate 135 corridor.
The worst was in far southwest Kansas.
Overall, he said, the state is in dire need of moisture.
That is borne out by the weather forecast, which puts a tiny corner of the state in the midst of what is called an exceptional drought in the worst category possible. Parts of three other counties are in an extreme drought situation.
Two-thirds of the state is in either a severe or moderate drought.
Harries said US Highway 183 appeared to be the dividing line for crop quality, with conditions deteriorating in fields to the west.
Even with a 256.7 million bushel forecast, there is not much optimism in it.
"We will start to lose yield potential if it does not start to rain in the next 10-14 days," Harries said. "It does not have much upside potential."
Although he is unsure how much might end up being abandoned, there were fields that appeared to be candidates for it.
Many fields, he said, had a mix of taller wheat that emerged last fall and shorter wheat which emerged this spring.
The spring-emerged wheat does not have much potential for producing a crop because it will run headlong into hot weather, fizzling out.
"That is why we do not grow spring wheat in Kansas," he said.
Conditions are even worse in Texas and Oklahoma, where a similar tour was conducted, producing a 75 million bushel estimate.
