May 2, 2008

 

Soy and corn areas in Canada's Manitoba expected to rise in 2008

 

 

Manitoba farmers will seed more acres to soy in 2008, according to Statistics Canada's first survey of what producers planned on seeding in 2008.

 

Although local industry would like to see an even-higher area, a slow upward progression was seen as being better in the longer run, an analyst said.

 

Statistics Canada put Manitoba's soy area at 280,000 acres up 21.7 percent from 230,000 acres.

 

"If you have a steady, slow increase in soy area, the industry will be better off than if there is a quick, sharp upward jump," said Martin Harder, president of Delmar Commodities Ltd. in Winkler, Manitoba. "If you have a huge spike up in seeded area, then you will have a huge spike down if something goes wrong."

 

Harder said soy area in Manitoba has been over 300,000 acres in the past, but when that has occurred, the area planted to the crop the following year dropped significantly.

 

"The year Manitoba planted over 300,000 acres, the next year planted area only totaled around 150,000 acres," he said.

 

Soy were seen as a good alternative to other high-priced input crops such as rapeseed.

 

"Certainly the input costs are considerably less than some, which need a lot of nitrogen, phosphates, etc.," Harder said, noting that soy actually help replace soil nutrients.

 

Harder also said that although the price outlook for soy in the US is not as good as it could have been, producers in Manitoba were still going to be able to receive good returns.

 

"Technically, soy prices in the province remain at historically high levels," he said.

 

Moreover, soy varieties are now much more tolerant to drought and high moisture conditions; they also produce nitrogen which is valuable for next year's crop. Lastly, they have shorter growing seasons and have higher yields, Harder said.

Soy is also more compatible with Manitoba weather, he added.

 

He said there have been occasions in which the yields for soy in Manitoba have been in the 50 to 60 bushels-an-acre range, though expectations are now at 40 bushels.

 

Meanwhile, the debate on just how much corn will be planted in Manitoba this spring continues, with some disputing a recent Statistics Canada survey that suggested seeded area will be down from 2007.

 

The survey pegged Manitoba corn acreage at 225,000 acres this spring. Of that total, 170,000 acres would consist of grain corn and 55,000 of fodder corn.

 

This is down 18 percent from 2007, when seeded area to corn in Manitoba totaled 275,000 acres, of which 200,000 was grain corn and 75,000 was fodder.

 

"Based on the feedback I'm getting from our members, corn area in Manitoba will actually be higher than what it was in 2007," said Murray Pritchard, vice president of the Manitoba Corn Growers Association.

 

He said corn prices for growers have been very attractive and even with the high input costs, producers will easily be able to generate favorable returns.

 

Seed dealers have also said seed sales of corn in the province are 10 percent to 20 percent above the year ago level, Pritchard said.

 

The only factor that could limit the acreage base for corn is the weather, he acknowledged.

 

"Soil temperatures have not warmed up to the point where Manitoba producers will be aggressively seeding corn,"said Chris Beckman, a coarse grain analyst with the market analysis division of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. "That is the major concern at this time."

 

Market watchers said improvements in corn varieties would help alleviate some of the weather concerns. Such corn varieties include those with shorter-season and less heat unit requirements.