April 28, 2023

Global pork exports set to fall in 2023 as production declines in major markets

Recent data from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) showed that worldwide pork output will stay flat in 2022, at 114.33 million metric tonnes (CWE), due to production declining in the EU, the UK, and Canada offsetting output increases in Vietnam, Russia, Brazil, and China, the UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) reported.

Despite flat production, total export volumes are expected to fall 3% in 2023 to 10.58 million metric tonnes (CWE). The drop is due to lower exports from the EU, the UK, Canada, and Mexico outweighing growth forecasts from Brazil, China, and the US.

According to the USDA, EU and Canadian pork exports will be down 10% and 4%, respectively, year-on-year. In AHDB's Agri-market outlook, they forecast a 10% decrease in UK pork exports. High input costs and herd contraction have had a negative impact on production volumes in these regions, limiting product availability. As a result, prices have risen, rendering the product less competitive on the global market.

But in Mexico, the decline in exports is due to increased domestic consumption, which limits available supplies. The most recent trade statistics showed that total pork exports (excluding offal) for these regions are down significantly year-on-year.

The EU exported 506k tonnes in the first two months of 2023, a 17% decrease year-on-year, while Canada exported 171k tonnes, a 10% decrease year-on-year. UK exports have totaled 26k tonnes so far this year (Jan-Feb), a 31% decrease year-on-year.

As border controls in Hong Kong and Japan are lifted, exports from China are anticipated to increase by 24,000 metric tonnes, most likely as a result of increased import demand from the hospitality and food service sectors.

Increased shipments to South America and Southeast Asia are also anticipated by the US and Brazil. Production is expected to rise in both nations (US up 1% and Brazil up 2% year over year), resulting in more products being offered at competitive prices.

-      UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board