April 28, 2004

US Farmers Could Lost $1 Billion To Soy Rust 
 
U.S. farmers could lose between $640 million and $1.3 billion during the first year of a soybean rust outbreak should the disease hit the U.S. mainland, the U.S. Agriculture Department said on Tuesday.

An USDA economic analysis has concluded the wind-borne plant disease would eventually spread to the United States, probably from South America, and could cause some economic damage for many years after an initial outbreak.

"The large range of damage estimates reflects the uncertainty associated with eventual effects of soybean rust in the United States," the report said.

Soybean rust, which seriously erodes soybean plant yields, has never been reported in the continental United States, the world's leading soybean producer. Hawaii was infected in 1994.

The disease has cost farmers in Brazil, the world's No. 2 soybean producer, billions of dollars.

Argentina, another large soybean-growing country, said on Monday the fungus was spreading there, but damage likely would be minimal with the growing season mostly over and harvest underway.

The USDA forecast that a U.S. outbreak would not be as severe, since soybean rust would probably become established only in the humid regions of the U.S. South. The majority of soybean production is concentrated in the Midwest.

"The occurrence of U.S. rust outbreaks will likely vary much more than in Brazil, where environments are more hospitable to the year-round survival of the pathogen," the USDA said.

USDA officials are weighing tougher import requirements for soymeal and soybeans from countries that already have soybean rust.