April 27, 2023

No signs of expansion in US cattle industry, says economist

A livestock economist said he's still not seeing signs of expansion in the US cattle industry.

University of Missouri's Scott Brown commented that, despite the ongoing strength in the cattle markets, USDA data suggests cattle producers haven't started growing the US herd. 

"Beef cow slaughter for the first three months, we're down 90,000 head from where we were first quarter of a year ago," he said.  "That's down 9.4%, so headed lower. However, slaughter is running high enough that it tells me we're not doing a lot to build the herd."

When the herd expansion was underway in 2015, heifers made up about 31% of total cattle on feed.  Brown told Brownfield that is not the case today. 

"As we look at the latest report we have, we're now at 38.7%," he said. "We've been north of 38%, really since late 2019. The report certainly shows us that we're also not holding back heifers."

Brown added that favorable weather conditions for both corn and alfalfa this year could entice some producers to ramp up their expansion efforts a little earlier than expected.

- Brownfield Ag News