April 27, 2022

Demand for pork in Europe continues to rise this year

The upward trend in European pork consumption that began in the second half of 2021 has continued into 2022, the UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board reported.

Eurostat's January output figures reveal a 2% (-45kt) year-on-year drop to 1.97 million tonnes. Swine slaughter in the bloc was 20.7 million head in January 2021, down less than 1% from the previous month, indicating that lesser weights contributed to the lower monthly production number.

In major swine producing EU nations, output in Germany (-12%, -50kt) and Poland (-11%, 50kt) also declined year on year (-11%, -19kt). In France and the Netherlands, production remained steady, but increased in Denmark (+4%, +7kt) and Spain (+8%, +38kt).

In January, EU pork exports plummeted 25% to 325kt (cwe), compared to the same month the previous year. In February, they dropped by 36% year over year.

The major cause was continued declines in shipments to China (-70% in January and February combined) and to the UK (-35%). Export quantities to Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines increased, but not enough to compensate for the declines.

With a drop in output but an even bigger decline in exports, pork would have been eaten locally in the EU, especially if inventories had not built up. Although February production data is not yet available, this is likely to have been the case in both February and January.

According to industry market data, even though pork inventories were high in January and February compared to past years, they were being depleted. If this is the case, the figure in the table above for supplies available for consumption may be an underestimate; pork going out of the store would enhance supply, offsetting part of the pork output loss.

Pig prices have been rising in the EU recently, since the supply of live pigs has not kept up with demand. The EU's March production and trade data is not available yet.

-      UK Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board